Wind in Ontario
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To generate 2,000 MW using wind energy in Ontario would cost over $13 billion. It would require the installation of over 4,000 large wind turbines sitting on a parcel of land a little larger than metro Toronto. This new wind generation would account for less than 10% of Ontario's total capacity, and be an increase of more than 500 times over current wind generation in Ontario.
Background
Recently in Ontario, there has been considerable public debate about future energy supply. Part of this stems from the provincial government's plans to shutdown all coal-fired electricity generation due to air-pollution concerns. All five coal-fired stations (Lambton, Nanticoke, Lakeview, Thunder Bay, Atikokan) taken together represent about 7,500 MW of capacity, or about one-third of Ontario's total generating capacity. Current information points to this shutdown being completed by 2008-2009.
Replacement of 7,500 MW will be a big job. A little over 3,000 MW could potentially come from the refurbishment of nuclear units that are currently laid up (Bruce-A 1 and 2; Pickering-A 1, 2, and 3), but the decisions to pursue this option have not been made yet. Assuming that the nuclear refurbishment option is taken, that still leaves a 4,500 MW shortfall. What other options should be pursued?
Perhaps demand-side management could play a role. It has been estimated that as much as a 10% reduction in Ontario's 25,000 MW peak demand might be achievable. This is based on actual experience following the August 2003 blackout. Thus, the coal-shutdown shortfall might be reduced to 2,000 MW. Note that this reduction in the shortfall is generous, and will not be attained without serious effort.
The Wind Option
Left with a 2,000 MW hole to fill, we are forced to consider additional generation. Popular sentiment in Ontario seems to show a preference for renewable energy sources, particularly wind. Wind has been called the fastest growing energy segment worldwide, particularly by wind energy enthusiasts, with claims of as much as 25% increase annually. At the end of 2003, worldwide installed wind capacity was approximately 39,300 MW. In Canada, this figure stood at about 320 MW, with 15 MW in Ontario.
It's reasonable to assume that wind energy could be expanded greatly in Ontario. However, it is not reasonable to assume that new wind installations alone could fill the looming 2,000 MW shortfall economically. First off, even though the shortfall amounts to 2,000 MW (given the generous assumptions above), the capacity that would have to be installed is much larger. That's because the wind doesn't always blow at maximum capacity in all locations.
Experience to-date in Ontario, with the Vestas V-80 turbines at Huron Wind and Pickering Wind (1.8 MW capacity each) shows that a maximum capacity factor of about 25% could be expected. This means that to attain 2,000 MW of generation, you would have to install as much as 8,000 MW of capacity. That's larger than the currently installed wind capacity in all of North America, and more than 500 times the 15 MW currently installed in Ontario.
Getting Down to Specifics
What does 8,000 MW of wind capacity mean in terms of turbines installed? Assuming Vestas V-80 turbines are chosen, similar to those already installed at Pickering Wind and Huron Wind, 8,000 MW amounts to 4,444 turbines. This number of turbines would require approximately 65,000 hectares of land area, slightly larger than metropolitan Toronto (60,000 hectares). The hardware cost alone, assuming $3 million per turbine, is over $13 billion.
For illustrative purposes, let us contrast this with Ontario's most recent new-build nuclear experience. The Darlington generating station, with 4 CANDU reactors, has a total installed capacity of over 3,500 MW. Operationally, lifetime capacity factor has averaged 80%, yielding an available capacity of 2,800 MW. The site takes up approximately 200 hectares of land area. Finally, it cost about $14 billion to build, including all cost over-runs.
Conclusions
Given the enormity of the looming energy shortfall in Ontario, it doesn't make sense to bank on wind energy as a solution to the short-term problem. The government's current plan calls for 10% of Ontario's energy capacity to come from renewable sources, including wind, by 2010. It's not clear if that means installed capacity or available capacity; as discussed here, there is a significant difference between the two.
Wind energy can make a contribution to the energy supply in Ontario, but it can't economically amount to more than a few percent of total capacity. The costs are very high, and the land requirements are extreme. Another major disadvantage is that wind can never act as a dispatchable, baseload form of generation... the wind is just too variable.
Nuclear, on the other hand, yields similar air pollution benefits, requires a negligible amount of land, costs less per unit energy generated, and can act as reliable baseload. If started now, new nuclear based on CANDU-6 technology could be available in Ontario by 2010.
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